TAMANNA DAHIYA
Has Israel initiated a timed explosion, the region can ill afford?
West Bank is a disputed area along the river Jordan which houses approximately 3 million Palestinians and 430,000 Jews. The area is under Israeli occupation since the 1967 war and is administrated through the underpinnings of the Oslo Accords of 1993 which provide limited autonomy for the Palestinian Authority to function as a legislative body in selective areas. Currently, matters of security are entirely under the Israeli state, which furthers a quasi-Orwellian control over the population through land permits, security checks, and curfew laws.
The speculations around the plan for annexation majorly incorporate the Israeli settlements but it implicitly kills the territorial contiguity of the futuristic Palestinian state in the West Bank which the Palestinians claim historic rights over.
Netanyahu has been pushing the agenda for annexation for a considerably long time but what makes the current time-period an indispensable “window of opportunity” for the Israeli center-right government? The primary reason for this is the fact that other states and multilateral fora are busy fighting the unprecedented battle against COVID and can’t afford more than verbal castigations against Israel's unilateral annexation. Secondly, the blank cheque from the White House for Israeli expansionism could be entering its expiration date if the US November elections bring Joe Biden to the fore.
Despite the urgency of the moment, the 1st of July came and went like any other normal day in the Israel-Palestine conflict, with realizations or developments regarding the annexation still embroiled in domestic uncertainty. Netanyahu claims that the territories to be annexed are yet to be decided and the plan has not been finalized in its entirety.
With the world watching there some fundamental questions with respect to this move which will not only define the future course of the historic Israel-Palestine conflict but also the frictional and volatile contours of the regional order.
Firstly, it is safe to conclude that the annexation will serve as the last nail in the coffin of Palestinian aspirations for statehood and transform the approach of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from one of partial conflict resolution to one of dangerous conflict aggravation.
The Palestinian response of canceling the security co-operation with Israel has been an evident exemplification of the sour relations that will ultimately destroy any achievement in historic peace-making processes like Oslo and posit a future of violence, suspicion, enmity and unilateral aggression.
Mahmoud Abbas declared at a meeting in Ramallah, “the Palestine Liberation Organization and the State of Palestine are absolved, as of today, of all the agreements and understandings with the American and Israeli governments and of all the obligations based on these understandings and agreements, including the security ones."
Israel’s unilateral plans of changing the status to their advantage will inevitably trigger similar approaches from the Palestinian side. It will kick-start a new era of aggression and political unilateralism killing any past overtures at conflict resolution and provoking a new phase of conflict aggravation. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh warned if Israel goes ahead with the plan, Palestinians would unilaterally declare a state along the pre-1967 borders.
Within the Palestinian National Movement, the move of unilateral annexation by Israel could be a death knell for the leadership of the Palestinian Authority and an inevitable trigger for an explosive bottom-up peoples revolution or armed struggle against Israel. Israel could trigger a Nakba 2.0 or widespread movement of Palestinians from the West Bank which would prove to be highly destructive for the region which is already deeply embroiled into a fight against COVID and an economic recession. According to a poll, 64% Palestinians are propagating for the resumption of an armed struggle against Israeli unilateralism, and 83% believe that the armed struggle should be self-supported and not dependent on Arab countries. These statistics provide a ripe underpinning for an explosive Intifada-like situation or a bottom-up armed struggle against the oppressive Israeli state.
The patience of the Palestinians has eroded and only a firm action by the Palestinian Authority can define the future of its leadership role in the struggle. If it fails to announce a indomitable plan of action against the annexation, the Palestinians are likely to view their passive leadership as tools in the hands of Israeli colonialists and move to launch a more community-led, bottom-up revolution, delegitimising the Palestinian Authority as their representative.
How will Annexation Change the Course of the Middle Eastern Order ?
The international community considers the West Bank a disputed territory and unilateral annexation from Israel will kickstart a chain reaction of violence and opposition in the region and widespread global denunciation.
Jordan cannot afford to keep at bay, since Israeli annexation plans propose an occupation of the Jordan Valley which will have direct strategic consequences for the country. Furthermore, 2 million citizens of Jordan are Palestinians, a majority of who are officially refugees, fleeing Israeli occupation. This is a demographic bomb waiting to explode if Israel furthers its annexation plans. Israeli aggression and colonialist ventures have defined the collective memory of this group of people who equate all their suffering to Israeli colonial expansionism since 1948. This collective trauma will activate a sense of antagonistic nostalgia against Israel and this time the people won’t remain quiet, helpless, and dependent on the Arab states to protect them and their national aspirations.
Qatar on the other hand has suspended money transfers to Israel as a form of opposition against its plan to annex the West Bank unilaterally. These money transfers were pertinent to maintain security in the Gaza strip as a part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal. Therefore, freezing these funds inevitably gives Hamas a free rein and raises future concerns for disruptive and violent activities in the Gaza strip.
Lastly, a more aggressive Israel unilaterally undermining Palestinian rights to national self-determination plays into the Iranian regional agenda of garnering support for its regional policies through an active anti-Israel narrative. This will provide Iran an apt opportunity to distract its public from its domestic failures in healthcare and economy and re-energise its regional prominence as a voice for the anti-Israel sentiment that is likely to sweep across the region in the upcoming weeks.
With security co-operation with Palestinian Authority abrogated, the Qatar funds for Israel-Hamas ceasefire frozen and an upset western neighbour housing 2 million Palestinian refugees, Israel is initiating a new, more aggressive and violent paradigm to regional politics. The Palestinians might witness widespread mobilisation against Israel and with the destruction of regional security pillars they might disrupt normalisation of Arab-Israeli relations indefinitely.
All of these red flags are an inevitable cost not only for the Israeli domestic security and economy but also for its international reputation as “the only democracy in the Middle East.” The Israeli left is worried that the move of unilateral annexation will bury the two-state prospect forever, raising considerable concerns for Israeli security. It also fears that Israel’s image as an apartheid and colonialist regime will be official in the international community, killing the democratic farce that it preaches about.
This move is not just suicidal for the Israeli security situation but also for Israeli foreign relations, diplomacy and global reputation. All of these costs for the disputed benefit of Israeli sovereignty over a territory that is already under de facto Israeli control seems diplomatically foolish.
The Middle East seems to be reshaping its regional order in sync with the global rise of populism and a consequent challenge to pillars of collective peace and security. Ultra-nationalistic regimes are using populist narratives to popularise approaches of unilateralism, aggression and revisionism, with leaders like Trump’s “Make America Great Again,” Modi’s unilateral actions against Pakistan and Kashmir and Bolsonaro in Brazil leading the way, the Middle Eastern leaders like Netanyahu are not far behind in digging the grave of liberal globalism and collective peace and security.
The views expressed and suggestions made in the articles are solely of the authors in their personal capacity and the Center for Middle East Studies and O.P. Jindal Global University do not endorse the same.
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